股市危机中股指期货应该限制交易吗——基于2015年股市危机的实证分析

利用上证50、沪深300和中证500股指期货合约及其相应指数的高频数据,克服了传统BEKK和DCC模型的不足,通过建立VECM-DCC-VARMA-AGARCH模型考察股市危机期间中国股指期货市场与股票市场之间的信息传导关系与风险传染效应。研究结果表明,股市危机期间股指期货具有很强的价格引导和风险传染效应,股指期货的持续波动加剧了股票市场的进一步波动。因此,提出风险传染效应与市值规模相关、非对称效应和非预期冲击效应与市值规模负相关、波动的风险传染效应与市值规模正相关。危机时期,应抑制股指期货市场上的过度投机,对股指期货采取限制开仓、提高交易保证金和交易手续费都是正确和切实可行的措施。建议监管当局健全股指期货和股票市场交易制度。     

货币政策的债券市场传导机制——对利率的预期渠道

从对利率预期的角度探讨债券市场在货币政策传导到实体经济过程中的作用十分重要,将该传导机制细分为两个阶段:货币政策对债券市场的影响和债券市场对实体经济的影响,经理论建模和实证发现:两阶段的传导都非常有效,货币政策的债券市场传导机制确实存在。将两阶段结合起来看债券市场的传导效果,发现存贷款基准利率、法定存款准备金率及公开市场操作利率等货币政策工具能够对经济增长和通胀水平产生显著影响。实证结果还表明:在货币政策的实施过程中应当充分挖掘收益率曲线中包含的信息;央行的货币政策遵循了逆周期的原则,很好地熨平了经济的异常波动;应当提高货币政策体制的可信度和透明度,形成稳定的长期利率目标。     

Perceptions of grandparents who provide auxiliary care: value transmission and child‐rearing practices

A grounded theory qualitative study was developed to explore how grandparents perceive their role as socializing agents. Forty‐two grandparents with grandchildren aged from 6 to 12 years old participated in this study. Data were collected through focus groups, which were conducted until reaching data saturation and analyzed using the constant comparative method. Four general conclusions emerged from the study: (i) grandparents recognized the importance of getting involved in the socialization of grandchildren as supporters of parents' socializing role, and the need to adapt to social changes; (ii) they emphasized traditional value that were perceived in decline, and combination of warmth and involvement were considered the best way to help grandchildren internalize values; (iii) interaction with grandchildren helped grandparents to feel active and useful, increased their life purpose and gave them a second chance to enjoy what they could not with their own children; and (iv) grandparents also accused burden and role ambiguity. These results show the importance of developing family policies that recognize grandparents' socializing role. Also, interventions that promote strategies that enable grandparents to perform their role more successfully and to cope with possible family conflicts should be developed.     

The Intergenerational Continuity of Fathers' Absence in a Socioeconomically Disadvantaged Sample

Fathers' absence is a pattern that shows intergenerational continuity, most notably within disadvantaged populations. The process whereby this pattern is repeated across generations is not well understood. Using data from the Concordia Longitudinal Risk Project, the authors investigated pathways between fathers' absence in 1 generation and the experience of fathers' absence by their children. The current sample included 386 socioeconomically at‐risk individuals across 2 waves of data collection: (a) when they were children and (b) when they were adults with their own children. Analyses based on structural equation modeling revealed that men whose fathers were absent when they were children were more likely to become absent fathers, and women whose fathers were absent when they were children were more likely to have children with absent partners. Indirect pathways between fathers' absence in 2 generations through aggression, education, and substance abuse were illustrated for women. These findings add to the literature suggesting that fathers' absence during childhood has intergenerational effects.     

现代激进主义文化思潮中的家庭重建——以《女铎》小说中的婚姻家庭观为视角

《女铎》是创刊于1912年,停刊于1951年的一份较有影响的妇女刊物。除了宣扬基督教义,还致力于提高妇女道德及普及新知识。《女铎》发表的小说多展示普通人日常生活中的温馨,所关涉的主题多为呈现于婚姻家庭中舍己的爱,这种爱又多是经历生活的艰难及双方的摩擦后而得的,因而显得愈发可贵。其中的女性常常不是软弱无力或哀怨愁苦,而是具有自尊自立自强的人格、直面人生困境的勇气以及对家庭邻舍的责任等美德。小说呈现出对女性生命价值的尊重,以及个体生命成长与贡献社会之间的平衡意识,揭示出新女性在个人与他者、感情与事业、社会与家庭等方面的调和努力,并本着建设的目的给出解决问题的答案,因而是对现代女性争取恋爱及婚姻自由之后道路的继续探索的体现。较之那些止于冲破旧家庭的新女性的塑造之作,无疑是一种深入;较之很多新文学作品中灰暗失败的新女性生活,也是一种积极的婚姻家庭模式的建造。     

模因论下基因型网络文化用语的翻译

人类语言模因的传递是以基因般的模式进行的。从翻译的角度看,翻译要实现的是一种语言模因跨语言环境的复制和传播,这一过程是由译者对源语语言模因的解码、编码和新的语言模因在目的语中的传播两部分构成的。文章以基因型网络文化用语模因为例,探讨了基因型语言模因的翻译和被接受的过程。     

数字网络环境下学术期刊传播方式的变革及因应策略

数字网络技术的迅速发展,给学术期刊的出版模式、编辑方式以及学术评价方式带来了一系列的变革与创新,但同时由于网络期刊发展的不充分、不完备,也使网络学术期刊的传播存在这样或那样一些问题:依托权威数据库上网,学术期刊的主体性丧失;学术期刊网络版发展空间受到局限;内容创新受到制约,等等。要真正发挥数字网络传播的优势,促进学术期刊的更大发展,就必须进行编辑观念的网络化转向,真正实现由期刊上网向网络期刊的转化;创办自己的学术期刊网站,建构各种模式的学术期刊网络站群;优化学术评价机制,促进学术创新;加强编辑队伍建设,促进网络学术期刊的健康发展。     

基于正交试验的间歇传动链动力学仿真研究

以间歇传动链为研究对象,建立了该系统的虚拟样机。运用正交法设计试验,选择输入轴转速、导轨材料阻尼系数、链条和导轨之间的库仑动摩擦系数、预紧弹簧刚度和集中质量共5个因素作为试验参数,以链条附件加速度值作为振动指标,进行了间歇传动链的动力学仿真研究。     

中国特色网络文化语境下网络公共空间的建构与升级——对人民网“强国论坛”的历史回顾与多维思考

网络文化的特性促进了网络公共空间的建构。中国特色的网络文化语境,赋予公共空间新的价值内涵与职责担当。本文在研究网络公共空间建构机制的基础上,旨在对其提出升级完善之策,以求网络公共空间能在监测环境、引导舆论及传达民意等方面发挥出具有更大价值的建设性作用。     

信仰的跨文化传播经验视野下的马克思主义中国化探索

人类文明史上不同信仰体系曾经历了长期的跨文化传播过程,从世界性宗教传播的历史经验来看,成功的跨文化传播必须在保持核心价值的前提下对信仰体系进行重新解释和形式变通,实现与传入地文化环境的有机融合。在吸收外来信仰方面中国社会有独特的机制和能力,佛教中国化的过程提供了思考这一问题的丰富经验。马克思主义传入中国后也曾面临着与佛教传入类似的环境,中国共产党人坚持了正确的吸收学习方法,在长期的实践和思考中澄清迷雾排除障碍,创造性传播和发展了马克思主义,形成了马克思主义中国化的伟大成就。